Gulf Oil Supply Rebounds to 97% of Pre-Conflict Levels, Easing Global Inflation Pressures

A sharp surge in Gulf crude production has pulled global energy markets back from the brink of severe supply deficits, offering critical relief to inflation-weary governments and households worldwide. According to OPEC’s November data, overall OPEC+ output climbed by 2.04 million barrels per day (bpd) in October to reach 41.23 million bpd, nearly matching the 42.72 million bpd pumped in February before regional conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Behind the numbers rerouting around the risk, the frontpage figures show a rapid recovery, a checkup on OPEC’s dual reporting reveals a complex logistical workaround on the ground. Saudi Arabia directly reported October output at 10.563 million bpd, up from 8.372 million bpd in September. However, OPEC’s independent secondary sources placed Saudi production lower at 9.194 million bpd, closely aligning with the 9.203 million bpd Riyadh reported actually reaching global markets.

To bypass persistent maritime hazards near Hormuz, Gulf producers, including Iraq (up 496,000 bpd to 4.491 million) and Kuwait (up 232,000 bpd to 1.998 million), have increasingly relied on overland pipelines, alternative ports, and offshore ship-to-ship transfers. Meanwhile, Russia edged output up to 8.668 million bpd, whereas Iranian production dipped by 44,000 bpd to 1.914 million bpd amid ongoing regional friction.