S&P Global and the AEC hosted a webinar on the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook, highlighting a shift toward execution, gas monetization, deepwater growth and infrastructure-led investment amid rising risks and capital constraints.
Africa’s next energy expansion cycle will be defined less by discovery and more by execution as governments and operators race to convert reserves into infrastructure, export capacity and long-term industrial growth. Across the continent, deepwater developments, LNG infrastructure and power investments are increasingly emerging as the real measure of competitiveness as capital providers shift focus toward delivery certainty, regulatory stability and monetization pathways.
This transition was a central theme during the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook webinar hosted by S&P Global and the African Energy Chamber (AEC), offering a detailed read on Africa’s upstream trajectory. The webinar, hosted by Vice President of the AEC Verner Ayukegba, brought together analysts from S&P Global to assess shifting investment flows, evolving project timelines and the principal risks shaping African energy markets.
Africa’s upstream oil and gas sector is entering a phase of stabilization, with production forecasts at 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026 and capital expenditure expected to reach $41 billion. Offshore deepwater remains the dominant growth driver, increasingly shaping long-term supply resilience as mature onshore basins face natural decline and higher reinvestment thresholds.
S&P Global’s Director for African Regional Research Justin Cochrane highlighted Africa’s structural under-exploration, noting that only around 25,000 wells have ever been drilled across the continent. He stressed that 74% of discoveries since 2010 have come from deepwater and ultra-deepwater plays, with gas accounting for 73% of total hydrocarbon finds. However, he cautioned that monetization remains uneven, with many frontier discoveries still lacking infrastructure or viable market access.
Natural gas is emerging as the central investment thesis for African energy development, increasingly positioned as both a transition fuel and an industrial enabler. LNG expansion, floating production solutions and domestic gas-to-power initiatives are reshaping the continent’s energy mix as global buyers compete for flexible, non-Russian supply and regional demand continues to grow.
Simon Wood, Head of EMEA Gas, LNG and Low Carbon Gases Consulting, S&P Global noted that global LNG supply growth is accelerated but stressed that Africa must focus on building integrated value chains rather than relying solely on resource availability. He said, “there is no shortage of gas potential in Africa,” but emphasized that regulatory certainty, infrastructure alignment and aggregation models are essential to de-risk projects and unlock financing at scale.
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